Macedonia faces significant challenges due to climate change. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme weather events are reshaping its natural ecosystems and urban environments. Air pollution, a persistent issue in major cities, exacerbates climate-related vulnerabilities, affecting public health and ecosystem stability. The interplay between climate change and pollution demands urgent action, integrating mitigation and adaptation strategies. Understanding these complex dynamics from a broad perspective is crucial for developing sustainable policies that conserve the environment, economy, and public well-being in Macedonia.

Status quo: Climate change and the everyday life

 Macedonia has been experiencing an increase in average temperatures over the past few decades. This trend is expected to continue, with projections suggesting further warming. The rise in temperature has led to more frequent and intense heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. These heatwaves not only threaten public health, especially vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children, but also negatively affect agriculture, energy production, and water resources. Prolonged periods of extreme heat can cause crop failures, reduce livestock productivity, and strain energy systems, particularly hydropower, which the country relies on.
Water availability is a critical issue for Macedonia, and the effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problem. The country has already experienced periods of drought, and with climate change, these are expected to become more frequent and severe. Reduced rainfall and higher evaporation rates due to increased temperatures can lead to water shortages, affecting both rural and urban areas. The agricultural sector, which relies heavily on water for irrigation, is particularly vulnerable. Reduced water availability can also affect hydropower generation, which is a key component of Macedonia’s energy supply.

In contrast to drought, Macedonia is also increasingly vulnerable to flooding and extreme weather events. Changing precipitation patterns have led to more intense and erratic rainfall, resulting in flash floods and landslides. The country has witnessed several severe floods in recent years, such as the 2016 Skopje flood that caused widespread damage and loss of life. The increase in extreme weather events poses significant risks to infrastructure, housing, and agriculture, as well as public safety. Flood management and disaster preparedness remain critical challenges for the country.

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Historical temperature data for Macedonia – source: Ed Hawkins, University of Reading

Agriculture is a vital part of Macedonia’s economy, employing a significant portion of the population, particularly in rural areas. However, the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures, water scarcity, and the increased frequency of droughts and floods threaten crop yields and livestock production. Key crops, such as wheat, maize, and fruits, are sensitive to temperature changes and water availability. Additionally, soil degradation and desertification, exacerbated by climate change, further threaten agricultural productivity. Climate variability also affects food security, rural livelihoods, and the overall economy, making climate adaptation measures crucial for the agricultural sector.

Macedonia is home to rich biodiversity, with numerous species of flora and fauna, many of which are endemic to the region. However, climate change, combined with human activities such as deforestation, land conversion, and pollution, is leading to the degradation of ecosystems and the loss of biodiversity. As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns change, many species struggle to adapt, leading to shifts in ecosystems and the potential extinction of vulnerable species. Forests, wetlands, and freshwater ecosystems are particularly at risk, with knock-on effects for the services they provide, such as water regulation, soil protection, and carbon sequestration.

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Climate indicators for climate change in Skopje – source: ClimateChart.com

Air pollution and climate interactions in Macedonia

The primary sources of air pollution in Macedonia include industrial emissions, transportation, residential heating, and agricultural activities. The energy sector, particularly coal-fired power plants, contributes substantially to the release of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), and particulate matter (PM). The use of low-quality lignite coal in thermal power plants exacerbates the problem by increasing the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀), which poses severe health risks due to its ability to penetrate deep into the respiratory system. Additionally, vehicular emissions are a major contributor to nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which are precursors to ground-level ozone (O₃). The topography of Macedonia, characterized by valleys and basins, can lead to the trapping of pollutants, particularly during winter inversion events, where cold air is trapped beneath a layer of warmer air, limiting atmospheric dispersion.

Meteorological conditions play a crucial role in modulating air pollution levels. During winter, temperature inversions are frequent, leading to the accumulation of pollutants in urban centres such as Skopje, Bitola, and Tetovo. These conditions result in prolonged exposure to high levels of fine particulate matter, often exceeding the limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Union (EU). Furthermore, the limited precipitation in certain seasons reduces the natural cleansing of the atmosphere, leading to the persistence of airborne pollutants. Wind patterns also influence pollution dispersion; for instance, weak wind speeds exacerbate pollution buildup, whereas stronger winds can transport pollutants to neighbouring regions or even across borders.

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The local topography and climate in Skopje, a re making the air pollution even more severe

Climate change has the potential to further intensify air pollution problems in Macedonia. Rising temperatures can enhance the photochemical reactions that produce secondary pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols. Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves may lead to higher ozone concentrations, which are detrimental to respiratory health and agricultural productivity. Additionally, changes in precipitation patterns can influence pollutant deposition and resuspension. For example, reduced snowfall in winter may lead to prolonged periods of dry deposition, increasing the burden of particulate pollution. On the other hand, extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, can cause the rapid washout of pollutants but may also contribute to soil erosion and water pollution.

The interaction between air pollution and climate variability has significant health implications. Chronic exposure to fine particulate matter is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and lung cancer. The synergistic effects of high temperatures and elevated air pollution levels can exacerbate morbidity and mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Studies in Macedonia have reported increased hospital admissions and mortality rates during peak pollution episodes, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation measures.

When the will is not enough

Amid growing global concerns over climate change, Macedonia has barely taken few steps to navigate the complex landscape of climate governance. However, the country faces significant challenges in closing the gap between national policies and European Union (EU) climate legislation. While Macedonia adopted its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) in June 2022, progress has been slow, particularly in the passage of key legislative instruments like the Law on Climate Action, which remains pending. The challenges are highlighted in the second shadow report on climate change, published in 2022 by Platform 27, a network of environmental civil society organizations (CSOs) led by the Center for Climate Change.

Most of the conclusions can be extracted from the national shadow reports. Shadow reports are independent assessments conducted by non-governmental groups to evaluate a country’s performance in addressing critical issues, such as climate change. These reports often provide critical analysis and recommendations for improvement. In Macedonia, the climate-related shadow reports are developed by four NGOs, which collectively examine the country’s environmental policies and practices. The 2022 shadow report pointed to significant gaps between European climate legislation and Macedonia’s national laws, particularly in the areas of monitoring, reporting, emissions trading, and climate adaptation. These gaps hinder the country’s ability to effectively tackle the climate crisis and transition towards greener, more sustainable energy systems.

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International financial support in Macedonia for climate actions between 2018 -2020, biannual averages (in USD) – source: prof. Aleksandar Naumoski

One of the most pressing issues facing Macedonia is the absence of the Law on Climate Action. Despite being drafted five years ago, the law has yet to be presented to the country’s parliament for approval. Without this law, Macedonia lacks the legal mechanisms needed to implement key climate policies, such as a carbon tax, which could help accelerate the transition away from coal and other outdated energy sources. Macedonia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement remain a mere declaration, not a binding legal framework. Furthermore, the country has yet to develop a national climate adaptation plan, which is critical for mobilizing funds and resources to respond to extreme weather events that are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change.

In addition to legislative gaps, there is also a pressing need for greater engagement with civil society in the climate policy process. The limited degree of transparency in government decision-making and the inconsistency in involving CSOs in meaningful dialogue. Despite the existence of legal frameworks for inclusive decision-making, civil society organizations are still not fully integrated into the climate policy development process, often being left out of key discussions until it is too late to influence outcomes.

This lack of engagement with CSOs hampers the development of effective and comprehensive climate policies. This gap in stakeholder engagement highlights the need for more institutionalized mechanisms that ensure civil society participation at all stages of policy formulation and implementation.

Financing the climate change battle – a great green whale

Estimating the budget required to solve environmental issues in Macedonia is a complex task, as it involves addressing a range of interconnected problems such as air pollution, water scarcity, waste management, climate adaptation, and the transition to sustainable energy. The budget would need to account for short-term and long-term solutions, as well as investments in infrastructure, technology, public awareness, and institutional capacity.

For air pollution, one of the most pressing environmental issues, substantial investment is required to reduce emissions from industry, transportation, and heating systems. Macedonia could need approximately €1-2 billion over the next decade to modernize its energy sector, promote cleaner transportation (including electric vehicles), and upgrade heating systems in households and public institutions. The shift from coal to renewable energy sources would involve substantial initial capital outlays, including for new solar and wind power installations. International financing, such as through the EU Green Deal or other climate-related funding mechanisms, could offset some of this cost.

A 2024 World Bank report estimates that approximately US$6.4 billion is needed over the next decade to effectively protect people and property from the impacts of climate change.

Despite collecting significant revenue from environmental taxes—€219 million in 2019—the country’s total investments and expenditures for environmental protection that year amounted to only €123.2 million. This indicates a disparity between funds collected and those allocated for environmental initiatives. International support plays a crucial role in bridging this funding gap. For instance, the European Investment Bank (EIB) provided a €70 million grant in 2023 for constructing a wastewater treatment plant in Skopje, aiming to improve living conditions for approximately 500,000 residents.  Additionally, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), along with the EU and Japan, extended up to €4 million in loans in 2024 to support energy-saving investments in North Macedonian households. These loans are complemented by cashback incentive grants covering up to 20% of the total investment, promoting energy efficiency and environmental protection.
While these international contributions are significant, the estimated US$6.4 billion required over the next decade underscores the need for North Macedonia to enhance its domestic environmental funding. This includes allocating a larger portion of collected environmental taxes directly to environmental protection efforts

Now what?

For Macedonia to make significant headway in its fight against climate change, a concerted effort is required to fill the legislative gaps, engage stakeholders more effectively, and prioritize climate action at all levels of government. The passage of the Law on Climate Action is essential for establishing mechanisms like carbon pricing and transitioning the country’s energy sector away from coal. Moreover, turning the country’s NDCs into a binding legal framework and developing a comprehensive climate adaptation plan are critical steps in aligning national policies with international climate obligations.

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The climate change in Macedonia are becoming questions on public safety

Stakeholder engagement also needs to be strengthened. This means not only improving transparency but also ensuring that CSOs are meaningfully involved in the decision-making process from the outset.  Macedonia’s journey towards effective climate governance is at a critical juncture. While the adoption of the National Energy and Climate Plan in 2022 marked a positive step, significant challenges remain, particularly in terms of legislative action and stakeholder engagement. To move forward, the government must prioritize the passage of the Law on Climate Action, ensure the implementation of its NDCs, and develop a national climate adaptation plan. Moreover, meaningful engagement with civil society must become a central part of the country’s climate policy process if Macedonia is to effectively tackle the urgent and complex challenges posed by climate change.

Autor: Kiril Arsovski Przho

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